Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:40:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F0 0xf026…1e98 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$817 (-18%) realized −$878 · open +$61
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$772
other 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 57% 57% -8.1%
≤30d 8 +0.9% -8.7% 62% 50% -8.1%
≤90d 13 -6.0% -14.9% 69% 31% -26.5%
all 13 -6.0% -14.9% 69% 31% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 31% -26.5%
10% -23.1% 31% -33.5%
15% -30.5% 23% -39.9%
20% -37.3% 23% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$629 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$878
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage101d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 54¢ 99¢ $73 $134 +$61 (+84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $432 +$372 +86%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $286 −$279 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $134 −$132 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $223 +$235 +105%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,237 −$1,217 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,249 +$1,075 +86%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 26 $3 $0 +6%
Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 220.5 Apr 15 $900 −$889 -99%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the March meeting? Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? Apr 15 $2 $0 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Apr 15 $3 $0 +3%
No change in Swiss National Bank policy rate after March Meeting? Apr 15 $3 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $74 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $298 41h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $286 41h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $134 42h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $134 42h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $223 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $147 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $74 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $88 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $147 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,016 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $1,014 5d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Arsenal FC 80¢ $10 26d
Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 220.5 BUY Over 59¢ $900 67d
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the March meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 101d
No change in Swiss National Bank policy rate after March Meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $3 101d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2 101d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? BUY Yes 97¢ $3 101d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.31 · official $134.37 (match) · 28 history records