Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:16:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F0 0xf026…5197 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate46%16W / 19L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$2
other 27% +$2
politics 13% +$1
finance 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -1.1% -10.5% 36% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 14 -1.1% -10.5% 36% 0% -9.7%
all 35 +0.1% -9.4% 46% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses16 / 19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage466d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 93¢ 92¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $22 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $14 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $21 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $86 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $78 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $1 $0 -12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 29 $37 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $39 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $42 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $38 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 10 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $17 +$1 +4%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 12 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will FDP be part of the next German government? Apr 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Apr 11? Apr 09 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Apr 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Malik Beasley win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 02 $17 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or higher on March 16? Mar 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $16 $0 +2%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $33 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $5 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $22 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $22 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $19 15h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $19 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 26h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $9 31h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $2 31h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $23 31h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $35 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $37 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $37 42h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $14 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $14 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $21 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $41 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $41 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $4 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.46 · official $36.80 (match) · 97 history records