Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:49:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F0 0xf021…df56 sports 449 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15,175 (+13%) realized +$14,758 · open +$417
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate52%239W / 221L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day76.7pace
Fees−$250est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$7,576now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% +$4,306
world 20% −$1,262
sports 20% +$962
crypto 15% +$941
politics 8% +$1,230
culture 4% +$751
finance 3% −$146
tech 1% +$305
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -11.1% -19.6% 51% 25% -17.4%
≤30d 322 +2.3% -7.4% 55% 37% -6.5%
≤90d 460 -4.6% -13.7% 52% 37% -7.8%
all 460 -4.6% -13.7% 52% 37% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 37% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 31% -16.6%
15% -29.5% 26% -24.6%
20% -36.4% 20% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$121 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$7,576
Realized+$14,758
Unrealized+$417
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses239 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$250
Open positions27
Markets (closed)460 / 449
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$265
Trades / day76.7
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 91¢ 87¢ $1,088 $1,044 −$44 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1,014 $867 −$147 (-14%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $700 $725 +$25 (+4%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 71¢ 80¢ $568 $636 +$68 (+12%)
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $653 $588 −$66 (-10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 59¢ 93¢ $236 $371 +$135 (+57%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 19¢ 42¢ $169 $371 +$201 (+119%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 69¢ 100¢ $252 $364 +$112 (+44%)
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $345 $360 +$15 (+4%)
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No 91¢ 85¢ $366 $341 −$25 (-7%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 26¢ 30¢ $286 $324 +$38 (+13%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 36¢ 54¢ $207 $309 +$101 (+49%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? No 61¢ 100¢ $183 $299 +$116 (+63%)
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? No 83¢ 100¢ $234 $283 +$48 (+21%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 66¢ $252 $266 +$14 (+6%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 100¢ $61 $184 +$123 (+203%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $198 $176 −$22 (-11%)
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals No 66¢ 85¢ $20 $25 +$6 (+28%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? Yes 61¢ 100¢ $12 $20 +$8 (+63%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+31%)
Will Waymo launch in London by June 30 2026? Yes 71¢ 4¢ $53 $3 −$49 (-94%)
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $235 $3 −$232 (-99%)
Will Jessica Faircloth win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Destry J. Payne Sr. win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Gregg Brelsford win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 170 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $367 −$367 -100%
Trabzonspor vs. Göztepe SK: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $233 −$233 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $353 −$353 -100%
Pisa SC vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $145 −$145 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $372 −$372 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the Jun 15 $16 −$8 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Jun 15 $189 −$189 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? Jun 15 $299 −$299 -100%
Sporting CP vs. CD Tondela: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Jun 15 $782 −$782 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $345 −$345 -100%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $147 −$147 -100%
FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $351 −$351 -100%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Jun 15 $0 +$8 +1663%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $261 −$261 -100%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8 Jun 15 $25 −$17 -71%
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? Jun 15 $511 −$511 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $119 −$119 -100%
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $196 −$196 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $299 +$23 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $263 +$37 +14%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $125 +$75 +60%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $331 +$113 +34%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $121 +$51 +42%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $45 +$2 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $172 −$30 -18%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $84 −$12 -14%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $32 +$68 +212%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $306 +$405 +132%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1,292 −$690 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $51 55m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $87 59m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 69¢ $56 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 83¢ $166 1h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY No 66¢ $20 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $35 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $75 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $59 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $28 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $63 1h
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $39 1h
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $97 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 93¢ $299 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $6 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $124 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 74¢ $331 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Under 71¢ $31 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Under 70¢ $7 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Under 70¢ $84 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Under 95¢ $45 3h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 57¢ $135 4h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 5h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL No 74¢ $82 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $125 5h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 64¢ $72 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $40 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,576.47 · official $7,576.47 (match) · 3500 history records