trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 37¢ | 62¢ | $84,975 | $145,194 | +$60,219 (+71%) |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 93¢ | 95¢ | $2,531 | $2,596 | +$65 (+3%) |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | No | 52¢ | 0¢ | $14,634 | $0 | −$14,634 (-100%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | No | 21¢ | 0¢ | $18,248 | $0 | −$18,248 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $151,060 | +$33,760 | +22% |
| Spread: Spurs (-24.5) | Jun 14 | $4,708 | +$292 | +6% |
| Spread: Spurs (-20.5) | Jun 14 | $2,252 | +$248 | +11% |
| Spread: Spurs (-21.5) | Jun 14 | $5,315 | +$638 | +12% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? | Jun 12 | $4,456 | +$191 | +4% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? | Jun 12 | $3,105 | +$77 | +2% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | Jun 12 | $111,613 | +$6,882 | +6% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | Jun 12 | $33,616 | −$9,546 | -28% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | Jun 12 | $44,711 | +$2,478 | +6% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? | Jun 12 | $42,688 | +$5,772 | +14% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Jun 12 | $77,509 | +$28,799 | +37% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? | Jun 12 | $58,036 | +$10,624 | +18% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | Jun 12 | $110,186 | +$31,810 | +29% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 12 | $18,565 | −$18,248 | -98% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on | Jun 11 | $14,915 | −$14,634 | -98% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 15 | -4.0% | -13.2% | 80% | 47% | +1.0% |
| ≤30d | 15 | -4.0% | -13.2% | 80% | 47% | +1.0% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -4.0% | -13.2% | 80% | 47% | +1.0% |
| all | 15 | -4.0% | -13.2% | 80% | 47% | +1.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -13.2% | 47% | +1.0% |
| 10% | -21.5% | 20% | -8.7% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -29.1% | 7% | -17.5% |
| 20% | -36.0% | 0% | -25.6% |