Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:16:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf01f…6f22 politics 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%5W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 92% −$40
other 5% −$8
crypto 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
sports 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.7% 6% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 36 -5.7% -14.7% 8% 0% -10.6%
all 47 -4.6% -13.7% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 0% -9.9%
10% -21.9% 0% -18.5%
15% -29.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses5 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage630d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $60 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $62 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $44 $0 -0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $101 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $53 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 11 $15 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 06 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Mar 05 $27 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 20 $13 −$1 -4%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $10 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $11 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $135 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $4,435 −$12 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $3,923 −$10 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 27 $2,767 −$16 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 13h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 16h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $7 41h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $7 43h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $8 4d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $8 4d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 8d
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 8d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 15d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 15d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.94 · official $26.94 (match) · 489 history records