Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:55:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F0 0xf01f…c58a crypto 1791 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,218 (+1%) realized +$2,218 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate94%1677W / 114L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 62d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,279
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 260 +3.4% -6.5% 97% 12% -6.9%
≤30d 882 +0.9% -8.7% 94% 11% -9.6%
≤90d 1791 +0.5% -9.1% 94% 12% -10.2%
all 1791 +0.5% -9.1% 94% 12% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 12% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 7% -18.8%
15% -25.7% 5% -26.6%
20% -33.0% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$225 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,218
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1677 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1791 / 1791
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$245
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1791 Trades
no open positions (89 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $72 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$168 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $41 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records