Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:05:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F0
0xf01e…aeef
world · 74 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses29 / 43
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage523d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 2 History 72 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 85¢ 80¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-94%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? No 81¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $45 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $36 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $45 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $38 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $247 +$1 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 +33%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $171 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $11 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $1 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $65 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $70 +$3 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $9 −$1 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 18 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $43 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $6 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $95 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $58 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $2 +$1 +25%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $150 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $55 +$1 +2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 17 $36 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $142 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $108 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $7 $0 -1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $60 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% +$1
politics 20% +$4
other 19% +$4
sports 11% −$11
economics 7% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $12 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $32 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $45 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $17 46h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $19 46h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $36 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $45 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $45 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $5 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $26 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $6 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $19 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $20 3d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $20 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $8 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $28 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $11 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $18 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $28 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $40 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $40 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 28 +8.3% -2.0% 29% 7% -9.3%
≤90d 59 +4.5% -5.5% 34% 5% -9.4%
all 72 +2.3% -7.5% 40% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 10% -9.6%
10% -16.3% 7% -18.2%
15% -24.4% 1% -26.1%
20% -31.8% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.42 · official $0.00 (match) · 339 history records