Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:19:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf01d…bb31 weather 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-4%) realized +$37 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$52
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -7.9% -16.6% 35% 29% -7.1%
≤30d 31 -7.9% -16.6% 35% 29% -7.1%
≤90d 31 -7.9% -16.6% 35% 29% -7.1%
all 31 -7.9% -16.6% 35% 29% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 29% -7.1%
10% -24.6% 26% -16.0%
15% -31.9% 10% -24.1%
20% -38.6% 3% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage4d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? No 72¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 28? No 63¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $47 −$5 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $14 +$8 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $26 +$7 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? Jun 28 $52 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $35 +$13 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $47 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $72 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $96 −$15 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $66 +$21 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $40 +$14 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? Jun 27 $50 +$21 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $28 −$10 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $21 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $28 −$17 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $37 −$8 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $89 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $4 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $6 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $11 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $6 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 26? Jun 26 $19 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 26? Jun 26 $15 −$2 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $9 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $6 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $8 −$4 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $6 −$3 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 26? Jun 26 $26 −$10 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 26? Jun 26 $4 $0 -3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 $0 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $65 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $48 5h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 63¢ $52 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 79¢ $50 9h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 80¢ $52 11h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 28? SELL No 75¢ $78 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? SELL No 47¢ $12 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 63¢ $14 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 72¢ $45 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 28? SELL No 70¢ $38 13h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 79¢ $47 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 28? SELL No 70¢ $81 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 28? BUY No 72¢ $35 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 73¢ $47 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 79¢ $26 15h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 67¢ $72 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 28? BUY No 81¢ $96 17h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $88 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $54 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? SELL No 96¢ $71 28h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? SELL No 42¢ $18 32h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 27? SELL No 59¢ $19 33h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27? SELL No 30¢ $11 34h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? BUY No 63¢ $28 35h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? SELL No 55¢ $29 35h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 73¢ $40 36h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 27? SELL No 80¢ $99 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.11 (match) · 66 history records