Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:53:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf01b…224f politics 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$24 (-26%) realized −$28 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$27
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$3
sports 31% −$29
politics 18% $0
other 4% −$1
culture 2% −$1
tech 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -6.1% -15.0% 25% 25% -78.1%
≤30d 10 -12.5% -20.9% 20% 20% -76.3%
≤90d 10 -12.5% -20.9% 20% 20% -76.3%
all 10 -12.5% -20.9% 20% 20% -76.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 20% -76.3%
10% -28.4% 20% -78.6%
15% -35.4% 10% -80.6%
20% -41.7% 10% -82.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)10 / 26
History coverage10d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 55¢ 73¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+32%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? Yes 91¢ 87¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 41¢ 27¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Yes 61¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? Yes 88¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will 1 person leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 52¢ 14¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-74%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Yes 47¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Yes 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +127%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1 $0 -38%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1 $0 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 25m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 34m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 34m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 34m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 36m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 42m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $15 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.19 · official $36.19 (match) · 135 history records