Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:33:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf016…1f07 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$98 (-4%) realized −$96 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$546now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$255
other 45% +$117
world 6% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.2% -10.6% 38% 38% -31.8%
≤30d 8 -1.2% -10.6% 38% 38% -31.8%
≤90d 8 -1.2% -10.6% 38% 38% -31.8%
all 8 -1.2% -10.6% 38% 38% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 38% -31.8%
10% -19.2% 38% -38.4%
15% -27.0% 38% -44.3%
20% -34.1% 38% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$99 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$546
Realized−$96
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $548 $546 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $84 +$82 +98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $467 −$169 -36%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $306 −$128 -42%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $55 +$119 +216%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 +$60 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $165 1h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $166 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 6¢ $6 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 14¢ $51 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $55 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $455 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 15¢ $74 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 24¢ $104 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 6¢ $30 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 16¢ $78 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 19¢ $93 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 22¢ $78 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $175 2h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 50¢ $84 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 32¢ $306 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 17¢ $410 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $486 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 31¢ $55 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $55 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $99 20h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 27h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $429 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 39¢ $50 3d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 25¢ $51 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 3d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $51 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY 25¢ $51 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $111 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 4d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY 42¢ $254 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $546.08 · official $546.08 (match) · 32 history records