Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:20:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F0 0xf012…dec3 crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate69%20W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$4
sports 42% −$4
crypto 9% +$2
world 2% $0
tech 2% −$80
other 2% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 83% 0% -9.3%
all 29 -7.0% -15.8% 69% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 0% -10.3%
10% -23.9% 0% -18.9%
15% -31.2% 0% -26.7%
20% -38.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses20 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage238d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 87¢ 86¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 22 $200 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 22 $260 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 10 $84 $0 -0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will there be fewer than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worl Mar 10 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 10 $20 $0 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Mar 10 $94 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Mar 10 $11 $0 +2%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 10 $11 $0 +3%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 06 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO Feb 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast hit 480 Million subscribers by January 31? Feb 06 $11 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 06 $60 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $500 before 2026? Jan 19 $68 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? Dec 06 $68 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? Dec 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$175 on the final day of trading of the w Nov 27 $80 −$40 -50%
Will SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 21? Nov 27 $80 −$40 -50%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 04 $4,272 −$4 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 04 $4,277 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 87¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $35 1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 39d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $260 76d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $10 76d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 76d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $10 76d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $200 76d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 76d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? SELL No 56¢ $28 111d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? BUY No 55¢ $28 111d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? SELL No 58¢ $6 111d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? SELL No 56¢ $50 111d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 70¢ $100 111d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 70¢ $28 111d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 70¢ $23 111d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 70¢ $2 111d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 70¢ $14 111d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 70¢ $2 111d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 70¢ $30 111d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? BUY No 57¢ $57 111d
Will there be fewer than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worl SELL No 94¢ $11 112d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $20 112d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $20 112d
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $95 112d
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $94 143d
Will there be fewer than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worl BUY No 99¢ $12 143d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $20 143d
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $11 143d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 97¢ $11 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.62 · official $64.62 (match) · 121 history records