Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:04:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F0 0xf011…515b sports 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$153 (-17%) realized −$153 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%52W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$10
other 43% −$96
world 11% −$36
crypto 1% +$3
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +7.7% -2.6% 67% 67% +24.9%
≤30d 3 +7.7% -2.6% 67% 67% +24.9%
≤90d 3 +7.7% -2.6% 67% 67% +24.9%
all 137 -18.0% -25.8% 38% 36% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 36% -21.7%
10% -32.9% 34% -29.2%
15% -39.4% 30% -36.0%
20% -45.3% 23% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% too few recent
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses52 / 85
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage470d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions (72 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $41 +$39 +96%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $24 +$6 +26%
Will Shara Magomedov win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $3 +$14 +479%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $3 −$1 -28%
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 21 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Feb 16 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 01 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 01 $2 −$1 -39%
Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 01 $1 +$2 +178%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 25 $18 −$18 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $10 −$10 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5 Jan 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 23 $2 −$2 -100%
ETHGAS FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 23 $34 +$5 +14%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jan 22 $15 −$1 -8%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 22 $25 −$1 -5%
Will Senegal win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 19 $31 +$7 +22%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Jan 18 $15 $0 +1%
Senegal vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jan 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 18 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Jan 18 $1 −$1 -64%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Jan 18 $1 $0 -40%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 15 $12 −$5 -38%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $12 −$12 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Jan 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5 Jan 08 $5 +$3 +61%
Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 08 $5 +$6 +113%
Will Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Jan 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-04? Jan 06 $5 +$2 +41%
Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 Jan 06 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $7 −$1 -21%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $5 +$5 +102%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Jan 03 $1 +$2 +186%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 31 $15 +$16 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 51¢ $30 1h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai SELL Shara Magomedov 99¢ $30 1h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 78¢ $24 2h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 50¢ $10 2h
Will Shara Magomedov win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 2h
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 121d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 121d
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 121d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 123d
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 123d
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 123d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 126d
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 126d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 130d
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 146d
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 146d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 146d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 152d
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 152d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 153d
Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 153d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $5 153d
Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 155d
Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 14¢ $2 155d
ETHGAS FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 88¢ $34 156d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $14 156d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 156d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 159d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 159d
Will Senegal win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? BUY Yes 82¢ $31 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.80 · official $78.80 (match) · 222 history records