Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:16:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf011…dc57 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$114 (-14%) realized −$106 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$122
other 38% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -29.8% -36.5% 38% 38% -25.0%
≤30d 13 -29.8% -36.5% 38% 38% -25.0%
≤90d 13 -29.8% -36.5% 38% 38% -25.0%
all 13 -29.8% -36.5% 38% 38% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.5% 38% -25.0%
10% -42.6% 38% -32.2%
15% -48.1% 38% -38.8%
20% -53.2% 23% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -74% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$51 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$106
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage6d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 42¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-13%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 26¢ 24¢ $26 $24 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $82 −$80 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $102 +$86 +84%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $50 +$85 +170%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $90 +$65 +72%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $49 +$21 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$22 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 26¢ $27 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 47¢ $82 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $188 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $102 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $135 46h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $50 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $50 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $40 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $49 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.74 · official $71.82 · 28 history records