Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:49:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf011…cb68 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 857d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$218 (-48%) realized −$163 · open −$55
Gross ROI / mkt -71% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate22%5W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$264
sports 1% −$2
politics 1% −$4
culture 1% −$2
world 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-73.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +10.5% -0.0% 75% 75% -31.3%
≤30d 4 +10.5% -0.0% 75% 75% -31.3%
≤90d 6 -5.3% -14.4% 67% 67% -31.7%
all 23 -70.7% -73.5% 22% 17% -95.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -73.5% 17% -95.6%
10% -76.0% 17% -96.0%
15% -78.3% 13% -96.4%
20% -80.5% 4% -96.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -71% · $-wt -95% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -90% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

857d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized−$163
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses5 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage857d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $220 $165 −$55 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +70%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +36%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 06 $1 $0 +26%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-21? Jan 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will PSV win on 2025-12-09? Dec 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will PSV win on 2025-11-04? Nov 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Crystal Palace vs. Bournemouth: O/U 2.5 Oct 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-09-16? Oct 15 $195 −$195 -100%
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof May 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League? May 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bengals vs. Giants Nov 04 $0 $0 -100%
Browns vs. Cowboys Oct 08 $0 $0 -100%
Solana above $150 on August 16? Sep 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ukraine take the Kursk Nuclear Plant by Aug 31? Sep 08 $1 $0 +6%
Biden drops out before the Democratic convention? Aug 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2024 Euros? Aug 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Friend.Tech airdrop by June 30? Aug 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump mention $boden before May? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $220 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 73¢ $1 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 4d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) BUY FC Bayern München 41¢ $1 44d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 44d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 44d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 87d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 151d
Will PSV win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 193d
Will PSV win on 2025-11-04? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 227d
Crystal Palace vs. Bournemouth: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 247d
Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-09-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 276d
Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-09-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $190 276d
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof BUY Yes 45¢ $0 556d
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes $0 592d
Bengals vs. Giants BUY Giants 50¢ $0 619d
Browns vs. Cowboys BUY Browns 56¢ $0 649d
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? BUY Yes $0 649d
Will Ukraine take the Kursk Nuclear Plant by Aug 31? BUY No 94¢ $1 675d
Solana above $150 on August 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $0 675d
Biden drops out before the Democratic convention? BUY No 60¢ $2 717d
Will Portugal win the 2024 Euros? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 745d
Friend.Tech airdrop by June 30? BUY No $1 779d
Will Trump mention $boden before May? BUY Yes $1 814d
Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 856d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.00 · official $165.00 (match) · 42 history records