Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:45:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf010…9fa1 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate37%15W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$5
other 23% $0
finance 8% −$1
crypto 6% −$2
politics 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 -0.8% -10.2% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 17 -6.6% -15.5% 24% 0% -10.2%
all 41 -7.7% -16.5% 37% 5% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 5% -10.9%
10% -24.5% 5% -19.4%
15% -31.8% 5% -27.2%
20% -38.5% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses15 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage468d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $30 +$1 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $62 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $12 −$1 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $32 $0 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $46 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $71 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $36 −$4 -10%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $39 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $66 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 27 $7 $0 +3%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 22 $7 $0 +5%
Will CHEGA win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative elect May 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $3 $0 +6%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $5 +$2 +50%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%? Apr 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island in t Apr 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? Apr 22 $5 −$2 -40%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31? Mar 28 $7 −$3 -42%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $14 −$2 -17%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 23 $14 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 21 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in Rebounds? Mar 18 $1 +$1 +44%
Did Kanye sell his twitter account? Mar 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14? Mar 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 10 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 98¢ $28 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 98¢ $3 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $30 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $34 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $34 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $20 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $10 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $30 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $30 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 42h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $34 44h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $34 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $9 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $8 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $23 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $33 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $32 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $35 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $35 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $35 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $35 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $32 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.91 · official $1.91 (match) · 132 history records