Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:22:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf010…9665 world 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% +$1
other 13% $0
crypto 5% +$1
tech 2% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +0.4% -9.2% 12% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 +0.4% -9.2% 12% 0% -9.4%
all 22 -8.3% -17.0% 41% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 0% -9.5%
10% -25.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -32.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -38.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage472d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $61 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $82 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Dec 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 10 $11 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $11 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +3%
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April? Mar 27 $13 $0 +1%
Will Tennessee win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on March 25? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 21 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-04? Mar 03 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $44 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $10 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $16 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $26 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $44 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $35 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $14 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $49 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $18 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $25 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $43 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $37 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $44 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $17 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $13 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $15 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $46 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $46 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.92 · official $43.92 (match) · 66 history records