Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:26:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf00e…dd55 other 258 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 247L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$53
sports 24% −$21
politics 9% −$8
culture 6% −$6
economics 5% −$4
world 4% −$3
crypto 3% −$2
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 258 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)258 / 258
History coverage140d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 258 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $270 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $444 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $249 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $370 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $433 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $494 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $194 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $108 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $110 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 16 $603 −$4 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $296 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $534 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $194 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $588 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $207 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $421 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $178 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $186 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $209 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 11 $582 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $220 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $131 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $282 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $288 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $59 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $446 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $401 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $266 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $391 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $135 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,019 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $221 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $464 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 1h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 3h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 10h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 11h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 16h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 18h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $52 19h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $52 20h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 22h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 24h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 28h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 30h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 31h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 32h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 34h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $53 35h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 37h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 39h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 42h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $3 44h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 45h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 47h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1437 history records