Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:47:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F0 0xf00e…4733 crypto 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$31,413 (-16%) realized −$31,412 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate52%46W / 43L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,955per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$418est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$15
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$17,801
sports 13% −$13,017
world 3% −$776
other 1% +$175
economics 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -4.4%
≤30d 4 +5.2% -4.8% 100% 0% -4.1%
≤90d 23 -62.9% -66.4% 26% 0% -81.2%
all 89 -5.7% -14.7% 52% 35% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 35% -23.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 34% -31.2%
15% -30.3% 33% -37.9%
20% -37.2% 29% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$3,009) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,453 vs −$2,457 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized−$31,412
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses46 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$418
Open positions12
Markets (closed)89 / 101
History coverage160d
Avg bet$1,955
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+3%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 68¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-7%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? No 95¢ 96¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 88¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 74¢ 73¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 16 $200 +$12 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $30 +$2 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $100 +$6 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $100 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 29 $11,760 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 27 $4,517 −$4,517 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $1,265 −$494 -39%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 12 $968 −$383 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Apr 12 $108 −$95 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Apr 12 $1,096 −$1,096 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 4AM ET Apr 12 $1,275 −$1,275 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 2PM ET Apr 12 $1,785 −$1,785 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3PM ET Apr 12 $1,975 −$1,975 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 11PM ET Apr 12 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4AM ET Apr 12 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 4AM ET Apr 12 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1AM ET Apr 12 $3,087 −$3,087 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1PM ET Apr 12 $5,115 −$5,115 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs West Indies (Game 1) Apr 12 $8,500 −$8,500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1PM ET Apr 12 $8,428 −$8,428 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7AM ET Apr 12 $9,506 −$9,506 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 20 $200 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 02 $236 −$236 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 02 $234 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 02 $215 +$18 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 02 $213 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9AM ET Feb 26 $4,214 +$4,386 +104%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 25 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12PM ET Feb 25 $2,601 +$2,499 +96%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 24 $106 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7AM ET Feb 19 $8,800 +$8,800 +100%
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? Feb 09 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 10AM ET Feb 06 $980 +$1,020 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 2PM ET Feb 03 $186 +$186 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8AM ET Feb 02 $2,000 +$2,000 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 1PM ET Feb 02 $1,612 +$1,488 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jan 31 $992 +$608 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 2PM ET Jan 31 $500 +$500 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9AM ET Jan 27 $500 +$1,500 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 3AM ET Jan 26 $12,000 −$12,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 12AM ET Jan 26 $5,880 +$6,120 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 3PM ET Jan 26 $3,009 +$2,891 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8AM ET Jan 25 $1,493 +$1,507 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jan 25 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026 Jan 25 $1,230 +$270 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 24 $402 +$198 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 23 $2,209 −$2,209 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jan 23 $6,396 −$6,396 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 1PM ET Jan 23 $4,412 +$4,238 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $21 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $11 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $15 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 79¢ $12 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $13 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $19 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $17 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $13 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $11 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY No 95¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $158 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $55 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $200 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 94¢ $30 33d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 49¢ $3,347 47d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 49¢ $1,136 47d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 49¢ $278 47d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 49¢ $2,456 47d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 49¢ $2,456 47d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 49¢ $2,086 47d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 49¢ $11,760 48d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders BUY Lucknow Super Giants 57¢ $4,517 50d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $107 63d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $33 63d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.83 · official $210.98 (match) · 563 history records