Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F0 0xf00c…34c7 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 277d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$239 (-16%) realized −$143 · open −$96
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$88
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% −$284
other 28% +$30
world 1% −$2
sports 1% −$10
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +25.6% +13.6% 57% 57% +41.4%
≤30d 12 -13.4% -21.7% 42% 42% +15.4%
≤90d 12 -13.4% -21.7% 42% 42% +15.4%
all 13 -20.1% -27.7% 38% 38% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 38% +9.2%
10% -34.6% 38% -1.2%
15% -40.9% 38% -10.8%
20% -46.7% 31% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -73% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$40 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

277d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized−$143
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)13 / 24
History coverage277d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $55 $44 −$11 (-20%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $45 $39 −$6 (-13%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-9%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 42¢ 34¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No $70 $14 −$56 (-80%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-40%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $33 +$12 +38%
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots Jun 26 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $10 +$8 +80%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 +$89 +291%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35 +$25 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$2 -13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 16 $230 −$228 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots BUY Yes 37¢ $17 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 72¢ $33 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 46h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 46h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 38¢ $20 4d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 6d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 6d
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $15 9d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $15 10d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $13 10d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 10d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 12d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No $42 14d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 15d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No $31 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.00 · official $186.01 (match) · 58 history records