Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:43:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf00c…efc3 sports 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$87 (+2%) realized +$234 · open −$147
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -13.8% -22.0% 48% 48% -9.7%
≤30d 31 -13.8% -22.0% 48% 48% -9.7%
≤90d 31 -13.8% -22.0% 48% 48% -9.7%
all 31 -13.8% -22.0% 48% 48% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 48% -9.7%
10% -29.5% 48% -18.3%
15% -36.3% 48% -26.2%
20% -42.6% 35% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$109 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$234
Unrealized−$147
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage4d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 12¢ $196 $49 −$147 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $102 +$116 +114%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $101 +$66 +65%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $97 −$96 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Altmaier vs Medvedev Jun 19 $298 +$131 +44%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Zverev vs Collignon Jun 19 $101 +$48 +48%
Set 1 Winner: Fery vs Cerundolo Jun 19 $101 +$70 +69%
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Collignon Jun 19 $101 +$48 +48%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $74 −$73 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $196 −$193 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $101 +$44 +44%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 +$131 +129%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 +$66 +65%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $598 +$557 +93%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $101 +$84 +83%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $185 −$183 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $93 −$91 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$74 +73%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$87 +86%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $102 +$103 +101%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 −$98 -98%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $108 −$107 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $100 +$110 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $199 2h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $97 7h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 46¢ $102 7h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 60¢ $101 7h
Set 1 Winner: Altmaier vs Medvedev SELL Altmaier 100¢ $429 7h
Set 1 Winner: Altmaier vs Medvedev BUY Altmaier 69¢ $298 8h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 45¢ $102 8h
Set 2 Winner: Zverev vs Collignon SELL Zverev 100¢ $149 8h
Set 1 Winner: Fery vs Cerundolo SELL Cerundolo 100¢ $171 8h
Set 2 Winner: Zverev vs Collignon BUY Zverev 67¢ $101 9h
Set 1 Winner: Fery vs Cerundolo BUY Cerundolo 58¢ $101 9h
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Collignon SELL Zverev 100¢ $149 9h
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Collignon BUY Zverev 67¢ $101 10h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 44¢ $74 11h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 46¢ $196 18h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $101 28h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $167 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $102 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $101 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,155 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $597 2d
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 60¢ $185 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $93 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 2d
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) BUY Atmane 45¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.04 · official $49.05 (match) · 49 history records