Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:57:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F0 0xf00b…42cd other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate70%21W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$3
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$2
sports 6% $0
crypto 4% +$1
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +17.0% +5.8% 73% 67% +4.8%
≤30d 30 +10.2% -0.3% 70% 57% -10.6%
≤90d 30 +10.2% -0.3% 70% 57% -10.6%
all 30 +10.2% -0.3% 70% 57% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 57% -10.6%
10% -9.9% 40% -19.2%
15% -18.6% 30% -27.0%
20% -26.5% 23% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses21 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage16d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +84%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +104%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 $0 +13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 $0 +23%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 $0 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 $0 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 $0 +24%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 $0 +8%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 $0 -3%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 $0 +13%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 $0 +33%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 $0 -14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $4 +$2 +67%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 $0 +2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$1 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 12h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $3 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 29¢ $1 13h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 14h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $1 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $1 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 92¢ $1 37h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 7d
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 8d
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 8d
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.97 · official $3.97 (match) · 67 history records