Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:04:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf006…bb6c other 234 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (412 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$12,779 (+11%) realized −$120,629 · open +$133,408
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +130% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +78% what you keep after slip
Net edge+78%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate36%67W / 118L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$481per market
Trades / day411.7pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$177,359now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$129,661
sports 2% +$209
culture 0% −$66
politics 0% +$926
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (412 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+108.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 185 +130.5% +108.5% 36% 30% -46.1%
≤30d 185 +130.5% +108.5% 36% 30% -46.1%
≤90d 185 +130.5% +108.5% 36% 30% -46.1%
all 185 +130.5% +108.5% 36% 30% -46.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover411.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +108.5% 30% -46.1%
10% ← realistic here +88.6% 28% -51.2%
15% +70.4% 26% -55.9%
20% +53.7% 25% -60.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +130% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +85% → late +176% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$139 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$177,359
Realized−$120,629
Unrealized+$133,408
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses67 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions367
Markets (closed)185 / 234
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$481
Trades / day411.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 367 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin James win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 33¢ $207 $8,316 +$8,109 (+3917%)
Will Davis Thompson win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 23¢ $207 $5,824 +$5,617 (+2713%)
Will Laurie Canter win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 23¢ $207 $5,786 +$5,579 (+2695%)
Will Ben Kohles win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 23¢ $207 $5,748 +$5,541 (+2677%)
Will William Mouw win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 22¢ $207 $5,636 +$5,429 (+2623%)
Will Zac Blair win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 22¢ $207 $5,636 +$5,429 (+2623%)
Will Kevin Roy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 22¢ $207 $5,636 +$5,429 (+2623%)
Will Jayden Schaper win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 22¢ $207 $5,510 +$5,304 (+2562%)
Will Emiliano Grillo win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 22¢ $204 $5,413 +$5,208 (+2550%)
Will Daniel Berger win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 22¢ $207 $5,385 +$5,178 (+2502%)
Will Matthew Jordan win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 20¢ $207 $5,010 +$4,803 (+2320%)
Will Sam Stevens win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 20¢ $207 $4,884 +$4,677 (+2260%)
Will Graeme McDowell win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 19¢ $207 $4,759 +$4,552 (+2199%)
Will Nick Hardy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 18¢ $207 $4,621 +$4,414 (+2133%)
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 97¢ 98¢ $4,144 $4,167 +$23 (+1%)
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 12¢ $207 $3,131 +$2,924 (+1413%)
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 12¢ $192 $2,783 +$2,591 (+1346%)
Will John Parry win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 11¢ $207 $2,705 +$2,498 (+1207%)
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 11¢ $204 $2,664 +$2,460 (+1207%)
Will Michael Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $207 $2,630 +$2,423 (+1171%)
Will Ryan Fox win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 11¢ $192 $2,627 +$2,435 (+1267%)
Will Nicolas Echavarria win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $207 $2,617 +$2,410 (+1165%)
Will Keegan Bradley win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $205 $2,585 +$2,380 (+1158%)
Will Michael Brennan win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 11¢ $195 $2,560 +$2,365 (+1213%)
Will Jackson Suber win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $207 $2,542 +$2,335 (+1128%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 131 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Danny Willett win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented Jun 18 $13 +$45 +342%
Will William Mouw win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Jun 18 $12 +$79 +644%
Will Alexander Albon win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ryan Gerard finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 the Memorial Tournam Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 18 $44 −$42 -97%
Will Henry Lebioda win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? Jun 18 $6 +$88 +1492%
Will Steven Fisk win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? Jun 18 $7 +$28 +402%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 18 $56 −$8 -14%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $0 $0 -49%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 18 $12 +$232 +1953%
Will Franco Colapinto win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 18 $82 −$85 -104%
Will Trace Crowe win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Carson Young win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Cabral/Mektic vs Altmaier/Jebens Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd Jun 18 $18 −$28 -153%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd Jun 18 $14 +$33 +231%
Will Trace Crowe win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Si Woo Kim finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nels Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Taylor Pendrith win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Jun 18 $14 −$10 -73%
Will Keita Nakajima win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Will John Vanderlaan win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Emiliano Grillo win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Ilia Simakin Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Wyndham Clark finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 the Memorial Tourn Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Leo Vithoontien Jun 18 $10 −$10 -102%
Will Esteban Ocon win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 18 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wor Jun 18 $27 −$27 -102%
Will Doug Ghim win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Mark Hubbard win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? Jun 18 $4 +$192 +4648%
Will Sam Ryder win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? Jun 18 $7 +$13 +177%
Will Charles Leclerc win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix Jun 18 $3 +$62 +1844%
Will Tony Finau win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Chad Ramey win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 18 $51 −$58 -114%
Will Sam Stevens win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wor Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Fernando Alonso win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Adam Svensson win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? Jun 18 $5 +$118 +2189%
Will Taylor Moore win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? Jun 18 $7 +$3 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6m
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7m
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 31m
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 35m
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 38m
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 38m
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 43m
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 85¢ $102 44m
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 85¢ $102 44m
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $176 46m
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $176 46m
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $176 46m
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47m
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $118 50m
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 2¢ $21 50m
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $118 50m
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $59 50m
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $30 50m
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $87 51m
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 14¢ $2,764 51m
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 86¢ $52 51m
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $93 58m
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $117 58m
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $117 58m
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $59 58m
Will Cameron Smith finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 91¢ $18 1h
Will Cameron Smith finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 91¢ $36 1h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 95¢ $97 1h
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $73 1h
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $59 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177,358.63 · official $177,369.89 (match) · 3500 history records