Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F0 0xf003…08cd sports 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,654 (-27%) realized −$11,653 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%23W / 32L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$774per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$476est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$200
7 days−$815
14 days−$815
30 days−$1,921
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$6,646
other 28% −$5,230
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -31.6% -38.1% 33% 33% -90.0%
≤30d 16 +9.1% -1.3% 56% 56% -39.3%
≤90d 55 -16.7% -24.6% 42% 42% -34.6%
all 55 -16.7% -24.6% 42% 42% -34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 42% -34.6%
10% -31.8% 42% -40.8%
15% -38.4% 42% -46.6%
20% -44.5% 42% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$1,013) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$623 vs −$819 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized−$11,653
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses23 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$476
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage68d
Avg bet$774
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $138 $136 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $49 +$52 +105%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $676 −$667 -99%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $121 +$127 +105%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $120 −$118 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $26 +$20 +76%
Will Vegalta Sendai win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,337 −$1,316 -98%
AC Monza vs. US Catanzaro 1929: O/U 2.5 May 30 $670 +$650 +97%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $330 +$320 +97%
Spread: CA River Plate (-2.5) May 28 $152 +$131 +86%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 25 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 25 $404 +$425 +105%
Sporting Kansas City vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5 May 24 $97 +$95 +97%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 May 22 $384 −$378 -98%
Will Academia Puerto Cabello win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $142 +$108 +76%
Club Olimpia vs. CR Vasco da Gama: Both Teams to Score May 20 $172 −$170 -99%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Henan FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $140 −$138 -99%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $231 −$228 -99%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $56 −$55 -98%
New England Revolution vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5 May 13 $139 −$137 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 May 10 $365 −$360 -98%
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $112 +$117 +105%
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 2.5 May 07 $1,574 −$1,551 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 07 $797 +$773 +97%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 07 $1,675 −$1,650 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 06 $1,726 −$119 -7%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $935 −$921 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 06 $1,696 +$1,713 +101%
Will CSD Colo-Colo win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $822 +$798 +97%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $742 −$731 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 105.5 May 03 $741 +$719 +97%
Valencia CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 02 $213 +$224 +105%
Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5) May 02 $1,323 −$1,305 -99%
Will FC Baník Ostrava win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2,031 −$2,031 -100%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1,989 −$1,960 -98%
Will Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1,727 +$1,886 +109%
Gainare Tottori vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC: O/U 2.5 May 02 $789 +$791 +100%
Amiens SC vs. Red Star FC: O/U 2.5 May 02 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $813 −$800 -98%
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) May 02 $1,929 +$1,944 +101%
Club Bolívar vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5 May 01 $1,013 +$789 +78%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 Apr 30 $562 +$447 +79%
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Apr 29 $286 +$278 +97%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 25 $920 −$905 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $400 +$404 +101%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $517 −$509 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5 Apr 15 $1,000 −$986 -99%
Tromsø IL vs. Lillestrøm SK: O/U 2.5 Apr 15 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5) Apr 15 $1,996 +$1,521 +76%
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5 Apr 14 $1,993 −$1,964 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $139 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $203 46h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $49 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $676 4d
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 48¢ $121 18d
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 54¢ $120 18d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $26 19d
Will Vegalta Sendai win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 47¢ $16 20d
Will Vegalta Sendai win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 48¢ $1,320 20d
AC Monza vs. US Catanzaro 1929: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $670 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 21d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 50¢ $325 21d
Spread: CA River Plate (-2.5) BUY CA River Plate 53¢ $152 22d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Cavaliers 50¢ $1,015 24d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 BUY Under 48¢ $404 25d
Sporting Kansas City vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $97 26d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Under 48¢ $384 27d
Will Academia Puerto Cabello win on 2026-05-21? BUY No 56¢ $142 28d
Club Olimpia vs. CR Vasco da Gama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $172 29d
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Henan FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $140 31d
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 55¢ $56 31d
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 55¢ $175 31d
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $56 33d
New England Revolution vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $78 36d
New England Revolution vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $61 36d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 BUY Under 50¢ $365 39d
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 48¢ $112 40d
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $639 42d
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $935 42d
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) BUY Cavaliers 49¢ $1,675 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.39 · official $136.41 (match) · 153 history records