Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:53:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf003…eb94 crypto 272 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate64%173W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$9
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +3.4% -6.5% 78% 77% -4.4%
≤30d 272 +0.8% -8.8% 64% 62% -10.7%
≤90d 272 +0.8% -8.8% 64% 62% -10.7%
all 272 +0.8% -8.8% 64% 62% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 62% -10.7%
10% -17.5% 56% -19.2%
15% -25.5% 42% -27.0%
20% -32.8% 32% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses173 / 99
Open positions0
Markets (closed)272 / 272
History coverage16d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 272 Trades
no open positions (94 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 487 history records