Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EF 0xeffe…5efa weather 349 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$8 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate96%305W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$6
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 +0.5% -9.1% 96% 1% -9.1%
≤30d 317 +0.0% -9.5% 96% 3% -9.1%
≤90d 317 +0.0% -9.5% 96% 3% -9.1%
all 317 +0.0% -9.5% 96% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -9.1%
10% -18.1% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses305 / 12
Open positions31
Markets (closed)317 / 349
History coverage26d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June 16? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 16? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 16? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? No 96¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? No 92¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? No 97¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? No 97¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? No 97¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 17? No 98¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 18? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 BUY No 94¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 BUY No 94¢ $4 13h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.68 · official $147.74 (match) · 683 history records