Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:00:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EF 0xeffd…9922 crypto 484 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$244 (+3%) realized −$172 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%210W / 274L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day36.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$79
14 days−$124
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$167
other 0% −$2
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 +2.7% -7.1% 48% 44% -11.6%
≤30d 414 -1.8% -11.1% 46% 42% -10.4%
≤90d 484 -5.7% -14.7% 43% 39% -11.4%
all 484 -5.7% -14.7% 43% 39% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 39% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 34% -19.9%
15% -30.3% 30% -27.6%
20% -37.1% 25% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses210 / 274
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)484 / 484
History coverage31d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day36.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 484 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$9 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$18 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$15 +208%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$7 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$23 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $19 +$17 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$21 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $29 −$13 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $37 +$21 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $39 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $24 +$25 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$9 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $62 +$28 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $42 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $41 −$12 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $19 +$7 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $7 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1169 history records