Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:13:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

EF 0xeffb…4fb5 sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$603 (+19%) realized +$644 · open −$41

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip

Net edge+25%after slip

Net WR64%break-even

Win rate64%14W / 8L

Drawdown17%max

Avg bet$92per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Fees−$19est.

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$407now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$490

7 days+$345

14 days+$902

30 days+$897

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +64%

net ROI/market (all)+24.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+36.9%	+23.9%	62%	62%	+28.9%
≤30d	22	+37.8%	+24.6%	64%	64%	+34.0%
≤90d	22	+37.8%	+24.6%	64%	64%	+34.0%
all	22	+37.8%	+24.6%	64%	64%	+34.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+24.6%	64%	+34.0%
10%	+12.7%	64%	+21.2%
15%	+1.8%	59%	+9.5%
20%	-8.2%	55%	-1.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +38% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +39% → late +36% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$86 vs −$39 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.86 per $1 lost it wins $3.86

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage

Net worth$407

Realized+$644

Unrealized−$41

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses14 / 8

Est. fees paid−$19

Open positions6

Markets (closed)22 / 34

History coverage21d

Avg bet$92

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown17%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$139	$141	+$2 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	7¢	$118	$85	−$33 (-28%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$59	$55	−$4 (-7%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$44	$44	+$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$44	$42	−$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$44	$41	−$3 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	Jun 21	$30	+$20	+65%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$447	+$244	+55%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19	Jun 21	$51	+$157	+307%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 21	$51	+$69	+136%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	Jun 20	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$45	−$45	-99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$66	+$22	+32%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 17	$23	−$22	-98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 15	$51	+$60	+119%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 15	$65	−$64	-99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 14	$102	+$88	+86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$14	+$45	+314%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	Jun 13	$143	+$57	+40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$15	+$16	+105%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 12	$54	−$53	-99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$15	+$25	+165%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 11	$100	+$55	+55%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 11	$152	+$116	+76%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 09	$15	−$15	-98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 09	$312	+$238	+76%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 07	$5	−$5	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	BUY Yes	15¢	$60	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria?	BUY Yes	7¢	$45	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria?	BUY Yes	9¢	$45	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	BUY Yes	11¢	$45	1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Norway win	BUY	13¢	$26	4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5)	BUY	27¢	$26	4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	60¢	$30	26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	49¢	$102	27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	49¢	$72	28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL	94¢	$120	35h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$447	2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Aurora Gaming	40¢	$102	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY	39¢	$51	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19	BUY	24¢	$51	3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY	43¢	$407	4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$45	4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	75¢	$66	4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$23	5d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 AND Por	BUY	60¢	$150	5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Natus Vincere	64¢	$65	7d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY 9z	45¢	$51	7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Aurora Gaming	53¢	$102	8d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5	BUY	61¢	$30	8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	BUY	24¢	$14	9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	SELL Natus Vincere	100¢	$200	9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	BUY Natus Vincere	71¢	$143	9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	BUY Team Falcons	18¢	$10	10d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY FUT Esports	53¢	$54	10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	48¢	$15	10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$40	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $407.13 · official $457.78 · 72 history records