Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xeff9…a861 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$1
politics 23% $0
sports 14% $0
crypto 9% $0
tech 5% $0
world 5% −$1
economics 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 21 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage119d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $104 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $105 $0 +0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $214 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $106 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? May 11 $106 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 06 $107 −$1 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $108 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $108 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $108 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $108 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $108 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $109 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 10 $109 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $109 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $109 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 01 $109 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $104 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $104 12h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $104 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $105 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $105 23d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $105 24d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $105 29d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $106 29d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $106 31d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $106 31d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $106 36d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $106 37d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $106 38d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $106 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $106 40d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $106 41d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $106 47d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $106 47d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL No 97¢ $106 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 98¢ $107 52d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $108 69d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $108 70d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $108 72d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 73d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $85 73d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $108 76d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $108 76d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $108 83d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $108 83d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $108 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records