Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:48:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EF 0xeff8…68eb sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$189 (-0%) realized −$392 · open +$203
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,081per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$435est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,936
7 days+$3,936
14 days+$3,936
30 days+$2,706
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$686
politics 10% +$2,199
other 10% −$2,894
world 1% −$307
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +33.1% +20.4% 47% 47% +27.6%
≤30d 19 +13.0% +2.2% 42% 42% +4.5%
≤90d 28 +2.9% -6.9% 43% 43% -2.2%
all 41 -1.2% -10.6% 39% 39% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 39% -10.6%
10% -19.2% 39% -19.2%
15% -27.0% 39% -27.0%
20% -34.1% 37% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$1,257) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,188 vs −$781 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$1,137
Realized−$392
Unrealized+$203
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$435
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage487d
Avg bet$1,081
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 46¢ 56¢ $934 $1,137 +$203 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,073 +$861 +80%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $490 −$206 -42%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $787 +$490 +62%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $446 −$435 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $577 +$656 +114%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $701 −$124 -18%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $512 −$500 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $799 +$415 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $360 −$307 -85%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,021 +$1,871 +183%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $650 +$1,996 +307%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $611 −$600 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $317 +$1,090 +344%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $339 −$333 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $950 −$939 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $467 −$459 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $470 −$460 -98%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $4,442 +$2,199 +50%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $2,543 −$2,511 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $1,730 −$1,687 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners May 18 $2,671 +$3,006 +113%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics May 17 $1,801 −$1,765 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 17 $601 −$587 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 17 $679 −$668 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics May 17 $308 −$300 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 17 $1,067 +$762 +72%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 16 $593 +$499 +84%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 16 $339 +$227 +67%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $4,040 −$2,067 -51%
Hunter Henry: Receiving Yards O/U 37.5 Feb 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Mike McDaniel be the next Las Vegas Raiders Head Coach? Jan 26 $25 −$24 -96%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 25 $632 −$632 -100%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 25 $1,518 +$1,087 +72%
Ravens vs. Steelers Jan 05 $300 +$608 +203%
Lions vs. Bears Jan 05 $1,257 +$1,546 +123%
Chiefs vs. Raiders Jan 05 $1,000 +$1,700 +170%
Commanders vs. Eagles Jan 04 $3,107 −$50 -2%
Will the 2025 MLB World Series have between 11 million and 13 million Oct 25 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the 2025 MLB World Series have more than 15 million viewers Oct 25 $70 −$7 -10%
Notre Dame vs. Miami Sep 01 $2,116 −$2,116 -100%
Was Milei hacked? Feb 15 $2,869 −$2,594 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $949 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 99¢ $1,933 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 52¢ $285 3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $284 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 55¢ $787 3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $490 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 97¢ $1,278 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $787 7h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $446 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,234 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $577 8h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 34¢ $577 9h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $701 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $512 23h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $799 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $52 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $2,893 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 46¢ $360 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,021 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,647 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $611 29h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,408 30h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $650 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $339 33h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $317 34h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 61¢ $950 36h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Cleveland Guardians 37¢ $467 24d
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 30¢ $470 24d
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? SELL Yes 96¢ $6,102 28d
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,217 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,137.04 · official $1,137.04 (match) · 78 history records