Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xeff8…93f1 crypto 915 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$333 (-1%) realized −$333 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%416W / 499L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$304
7 days−$322
14 days+$20
30 days−$1,852
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,664
other 1% −$21
world 0% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -5.3% -14.3% 47% 47% -24.6%
≤30d 887 -3.2% -12.4% 45% 44% -14.5%
≤90d 887 -3.2% -12.4% 45% 44% -14.5%
all 915 -0.3% -9.8% 45% 45% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 45% -14.2%
10% -18.4% 44% -22.4%
15% -26.3% 43% -29.9%
20% -33.5% 40% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$31 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$333
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses416 / 499
Open positions0
Markets (closed)915 / 915
History coverage139d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 915 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$13 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$10 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$16 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$20 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$17 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$27 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$6 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$6 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$14 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2311 history records