Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xeff5…dd85 other 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,418 (+17%) realized +$3,445 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%63W / 59L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$1,830now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$537
14 days+$728
30 days+$2,477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$1,251
sports 31% +$2,100
politics 20% −$78
crypto 3% −$86
weather 0% −$24
world 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +5.9% -4.2% 57% 57% +2.2%
≤30d 60 +6.9% -3.2% 55% 50% +17.6%
≤90d 90 -4.8% -13.8% 52% 42% +7.4%
all 122 -9.6% -18.2% 52% 42% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 42% +6.8%
10% -26.0% 35% -3.4%
15% -33.2% 28% -12.7%
20% -39.7% 23% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -24% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$60 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$1,830
Realized+$3,445
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses63 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions4
Markets (closed)122 / 130
History coverage209d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 90¢ $1,500 $1,476 −$24 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 60¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+3%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$28 -55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$28 +55%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$15 +30%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $61 +$28 +46%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $217 +$86 +40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$7 +27%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $141 +$62 +44%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,101 +$120 +11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $18 +$69 +388%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $882 +$1,078 +122%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $142 +$156 +109%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 $0 -1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $493 −$487 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $591 +$597 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $384 −$376 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$8 +81%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $23 −$23 -98%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $31 +$7 +23%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $5 $0 -5%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $5 $0 +9%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $4 +$5 +134%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $5 +$4 +70%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori Jun 05 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $7 +$2 +29%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $27 +$21 +78%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 −$3 -32%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $81 $0 -0%
Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $45 +$36 +79%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $1,504 31m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $303 46m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $56 47m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $27 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 22¢ $23 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $78 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 15h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $51 32h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 35h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $66 38h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $89 38h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 14¢ $1 38h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 40h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $61 40h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $192 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $32 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 59¢ $36 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $30 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $141 3d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,221 3d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $99 3d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1,002 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $19 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,830.18 · official $1,830.18 (match) · 274 history records