Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:56:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xeff4…2aa4
sports · 956 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$1,327 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,364 · open −$37
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$412
Realized+$1,364
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses488 / 444
Est. fees paid−$160
Open positions24
Markets (closed)932 / 956
History coverage24d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day109.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 24 History 932 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$132
7 days+$618
14 days+$1,116
30 days+$1,364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Gen.G 80¢ 78¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 42¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Gen.G 77¢ 78¢ $23 $24 +$0 (+2%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Gen.G 77¢ 78¢ $23 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Bilibili Gaming 54¢ 50¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-6%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Gen.G 78¢ 78¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
ITF Wuning: Zongyu Li vs Mai Hontama Zongyu Li 83¢ 94¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+13%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 44¢ $19 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 51¢ 47¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-8%)
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-11%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Toby Samuel 79¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Toronto Marlies 80¢ 99¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+24%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 78¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 65¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-68%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro 55¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite - Game 2 Winner GG Boom 58¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+72%)
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Alexander Bublik 56¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Alan Magadan Naoya Honda 25¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Chicago Wolves 74¢ 1¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Open Qualifier 2 Playoffs Ignite 51¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $15 +$5 +33%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $42 −$4 -10%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$2 +31%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $14 +$5 +34%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $27 −$9 -35%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Jangjun Kim Jun 13 $5 +$3 +66%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $34 −$7 -20%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $48 +$9 +20%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 +$2 +124%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $20 +$18 +90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $39 +$32 +80%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$5 +57%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $14 −$1 -4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +71%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 +$4 +291%
Dota 2: cyberdingzhen vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$2 -6%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $64 −$27 -42%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $38 −$15 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $17 −$13 -78%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $29 +$104 +360%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 Jun 13 $1 +$3 +226%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $17 +$10 +60%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $22 −$2 -8%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $21 +$17 +82%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$17 +87%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $22 +$17 +80%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $16 −$13 -78%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$2 +34%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $20 +$19 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $39 −$20 -52%
Will Leicester Tigers win? Jun 13 $15 +$5 +32%
ITF Brasilia: Pedro Rodrigues vs Alex Hernandez Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
ITF Brasilia: Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Nicolas Oliveira Jun 12 $3 +$1 +26%
ITF Cuiaba: Noelia Zeballos vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Jun 12 $2 +$2 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% +$1,290
crypto 14% +$70
weather 1% −$43
other 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Alan Magadan BUY Naoya Honda 25¢ $1 11m
ITF Wuning: Zongyu Li vs Mai Hontama BUY Zongyu Li 83¢ $15 16m
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY No 65¢ $3 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 75¢ $15 1h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 60¢ $3 1h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 56¢ $2 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $9 1h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 19¢ $2 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Under 77¢ $2 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 73¢ $0 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 73¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $31 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 45¢ $15 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 42¢ $15 2h
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 79¢ $2 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 85¢ $15 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 74¢ $14 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 87¢ $19 2h
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Jangjun Kim BUY Jangjun Kim 62¢ $1 2h
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $1 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ $1 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $4 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $3 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $1 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $3 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $2 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $12 3h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 83¢ $2 3h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $15 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 529 +8.2% -2.1% 52% 51% -2.1%
≤30d 932 +4.5% -5.5% 52% 50% -3.6%
≤90d 932 +4.5% -5.5% 52% 50% -3.6%
all 932 +4.5% -5.5% 52% 50% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover109.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 50% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 44% -12.8%
15% -22.8% 37% -21.2%
20% -30.4% 31% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $411.92 · official $411.92 (match) · 3500 history records