Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EF 0xeff4…88d2 crypto 479 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$154 (-8%) realized −$129 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%205W / 272L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$120
weather 43% −$85
other 2% +$1
tech 1% +$7
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +12.0% +1.3% 100% 33% +1.5%
≤30d 37 -5.3% -14.3% 76% 32% -12.2%
≤90d 477 -7.6% -16.4% 43% 35% -18.1%
all 477 -7.6% -16.4% 43% 35% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 35% -18.1%
10% -24.4% 31% -25.9%
15% -31.7% 28% -33.1%
20% -38.4% 24% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$129
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses205 / 272
Open positions2
Markets (closed)477 / 479
History coverage86d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 477 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? No 90¢ 90¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? No 64¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 14 $23 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $25 +$8 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$6 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 +$8 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $28 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 30? May 30 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 30? May 30 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 29? May 29 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 28? May 28 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on May 28? May 28 $19 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 28? May 27 $24 −$24 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ma May 27 $24 −$24 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on May 2 May 27 $24 −$24 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $24 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 27? May 27 $24 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 26? May 26 $23 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on May 26? May 26 $25 +$3 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 25 $9 −$3 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on May 25? May 25 $6 −$5 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 25? May 25 $3 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 25? May 25 $9 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 25 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on May 25? May 25 $20 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 23? May 23 $14 −$14 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 23? May 23 $15 +$1 +6%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 22 $20 +$7 +37%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $18 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on May 16? May 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 16? May 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on May 15? May 15 $2 +$4 +174%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 15? May 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 15? May 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on May 15? May 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on May 14? May 14 $5 +$10 +195%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on May 14? May 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 14? May 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 13? May 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 13? May 13 $10 −$9 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 64¢ $25 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $26 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $25 23h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $26 33h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $25 38h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $26 40h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $25 46h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 99¢ $34 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $23 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 73¢ $25 3d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? SELL No 93¢ $28 3d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $25 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $26 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $31 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $25 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $26 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 80¢ $25 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $25 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $27 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $25 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $37 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 76¢ $28 5d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $30 6d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 10? BUY No 93¢ $28 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 30? SELL No 99¢ $20 17d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 30? BUY No 94¢ $19 17d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 30? SELL No 100¢ $19 17d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 30? BUY No 94¢ $18 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.02 · official $25.03 (match) · 900 history records