Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:48:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xeff3…1c83 crypto 165 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$123 (-7%) realized −$123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%71W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$56
14 days+$45
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$115
sports 15% +$6
other 8% −$42
politics 1% −$13
culture 0% $0
world 0% +$1
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -10.1% -18.7% 45% 45% +23.2%
≤30d 136 -13.2% -21.5% 47% 45% -13.5%
≤90d 148 -14.4% -22.6% 45% 43% -13.9%
all 163 -15.8% -23.9% 44% 42% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 42% -15.0%
10% -31.1% 39% -23.1%
15% -37.8% 31% -30.5%
20% -43.9% 25% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses71 / 92
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)163 / 165
History coverage124d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $20 +$20 +97%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $68 +$48 +70%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $4 +$6 +151%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Jun 17 $5 $0 -7%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 -12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Georgia vs. Romania end in a draw? Jun 02 $1 +$3 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 02 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 02 $6 −$3 -48%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $3 +$3 +97%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 01 $8 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 01 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 01 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 01 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $5 +$3 +67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 01 $9 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 01 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 01 $25 −$15 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Rafael Fiziev 100¢ $40 1h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 50¢ $20 3h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY No 49¢ $5 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 19h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 21h
Norway vs. France: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 17¢ $4 25h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 25h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $116 25h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $68 26h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 46h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $4 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 9d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 50¢ $9 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 10d
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? SELL No 47¢ $5 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 23d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $7 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 25d
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 25d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.67 · official $12.67 (match) · 340 history records