Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EF 0xefee…5c77 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$98 (-2%) realized −$94 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$329per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$2,223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$333
7 days−$151
14 days−$1
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$240
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -17.5% -25.4% 38% 38% -21.8%
≤30d 14 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 50% -15.4%
≤90d 14 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 50% -15.4%
all 14 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 50% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 50% -15.4%
10% -17.3% 50% -23.5%
15% -25.3% 50% -30.9%
20% -32.6% 50% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$238 vs −$271 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$2,223
Realized−$94
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)14 / 18
History coverage19d
Avg bet$329
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 74¢ 76¢ $1,108 $1,133 +$25 (+2%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $1,000 $1,075 +$75 (+8%)
Ivan Perišić: 1+ assists Yes 31¢ 12¢ $40 $15 −$25 (-63%)
Petar Musa: 1+ goals Yes 41¢ 0¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$155 +152%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 23 $199 +$178 +90%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $217 −$215 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $152 −$150 -99%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $152 +$181 +119%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $246 +$248 +101%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,003 −$1,000 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $130 +$116 +90%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $422 +$230 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $508 +$556 +109%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $236 −$235 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ivan Perišić: 1+ assists BUY Yes 31¢ $41 1h
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $80 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 24h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 52¢ $199 27h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $102 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $217 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $152 5d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $152 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $101 6d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $102 6d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $246 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,003 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $130 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $422 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 11d
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 24¢ $170 19d
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 24¢ $66 19d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,006 19d
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 74¢ $1,117 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,223.03 · official $2,223.19 (match) · 26 history records