Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EF 0xefe8…ab0e crypto 1737 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$22 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate91%1592W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$28
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5
other 0% −$5
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 -4.8% -13.9% 83% 37% -13.5%
≤30d 557 -1.8% -11.2% 86% 49% -11.0%
≤90d 1742 -0.5% -10.0% 91% 18% -10.0%
all 1742 -0.5% -10.0% 91% 18% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 18% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 2% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1592 / 150
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1742 / 1737
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1742 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$3 -1790%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$4 -2442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.36 · official $2.36 (match) · 3500 history records