Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:24:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EF 0xefe7…0cdf crypto 1328 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 122d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,850 (-22%) realized −$6,850 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%696W / 629L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 123d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$1,818
sports 5% −$117
other 3% +$96
world 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +25.2% +13.3% 44% 44% +8.3%
≤30d 93 +14.2% +3.4% 47% 46% +1.2%
≤90d 504 -39.9% -45.6% 27% 26% -41.8%
all 1325 -3.0% -12.2% 53% 49% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 49% -14.8%
10% -20.6% 46% -22.9%
15% -28.3% 42% -30.4%
20% -35.3% 38% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$18 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$6,850
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses696 / 629
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1325 / 1328
History coverage123d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1325 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 52¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +93%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 −$4 -26%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$1 -7%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 +$45 +462%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $13 +$25 +185%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $21 +$18 +83%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 +$19 +124%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $31 −$10 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +132%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 +$19 +188%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$19 +188%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$30 +291%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $14 +$20 +140%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $18 +$20 +112%
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 +$10 +197%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$49 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? May 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 25 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 25 $41 +$31 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 25 $5 +$10 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 24 $21 +$18 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $11 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $19 11h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 32¢ $19 11h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $20 17h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $10 17h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $11 17h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 26h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $12 26h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? SELL Yes 98¢ $55 28h
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? SELL Yes 99¢ $38 28h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 29h
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 34¢ $13 29h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $15 34h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $15 34h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $21 35h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 34¢ $22 35h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $31 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $12 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 41h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $15 43h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $12 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.89 · official $10.89 (match) · 3500 history records