Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:41:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xefe6…7c8f other 216 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate25%55W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$48
14 days−$48
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$302
crypto 20% −$34
sports 11% −$284
world 1% −$14
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 43% 29% -27.6%
≤30d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 43% 29% -27.6%
≤90d 46 -25.0% -32.1% 26% 24% -15.5%
all 216 -18.3% -26.1% 25% 22% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 22% -9.7%
10% -33.2% 21% -18.3%
15% -39.6% 20% -26.2%
20% -45.6% 19% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$13 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses55 / 161
Open positions0
Markets (closed)216 / 216
History coverage158d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 216 Trades
no open positions (66 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$18 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$15 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$35 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$41 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$43 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 18 $100 −$85 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 18 $110 −$35 -32%
Will Keaton Wagler win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament f Apr 05 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Cameron Boozer win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament Apr 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Jeremy Fears Jr win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament Apr 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Braden Smith win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament fo Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kingston Flemings win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tourname Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Joshua Jefferson win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournamen Mar 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Caleb Wilson win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament fo Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will JT Toppin win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament for t Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AJ Dybantsa win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament for Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Darius Acuff Jr win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 30 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 30 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 30 $10 +$23 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 30 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 30 $30 −$23 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 30 $100 +$214 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 30 $100 −$81 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 30 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 30 $10 +$21 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 29 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 29 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 29 $15 +$27 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 29 $20 −$16 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 29 $10 +$33 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 29 $20 −$10 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 29 $50 +$54 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 28 $25 −$22 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 28 $30 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 28 $22 +$15 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 28 $41 −$31 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 28 $30 +$38 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 19 $20 −$18 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 19 $30 +$30 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 19 $10 −$7 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $6 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $12 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $68 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $15 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $100 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $75 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $110 60d
Will Keaton Wagler win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament f BUY Yes 2¢ $4 74d
Will Cameron Boozer win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament BUY Yes 2¢ $1 75d
Will Jeremy Fears Jr win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament BUY Yes 1¢ $2 75d
Will Cameron Boozer win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament BUY Yes 2¢ $4 75d
Will Cameron Boozer win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament BUY Yes 1¢ $1 78d
Will Braden Smith win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament fo BUY Yes 1¢ $1 78d
Will Keaton Wagler win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament f BUY Yes 16¢ $32 79d
Will Kingston Flemings win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tourname BUY Yes 1¢ $2 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 491 history records