Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:49:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EF 0xefe4…23ef crypto 2131 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (208 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL −$377 (-10%) realized −$376 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%566W / 528L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day208.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$291
7 days−$287
14 days+$1,208
30 days+$1,208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$1,472
sports 8% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (208 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+69.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 199 -90.8% -91.6% 8% 8% -73.4%
≤30d 1094 +87.7% +69.9% 52% 49% +33.8%
≤90d 1094 +87.7% +69.9% 52% 49% +33.8%
all 1094 +87.7% +69.9% 52% 49% +33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover208.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +69.9% 49% +33.8%
10% ← realistic here +53.6% 47% +21.0%
15% +38.8% 46% +9.3%
20% +25.2% 45% -1.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +88% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +120% → late +56% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$376
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses566 / 528
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1094 / 2131
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day208.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1094 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs KOLESIE 80¢ 58¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY KOLESIE 80¢ $4 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 87¢ $4 13h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 80¢ $4 14h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 80¢ $0 14h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 78¢ $4 15h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 83¢ $4 16h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 86¢ $4 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 83¢ $4 18h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 86¢ $4 18h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 83¢ $4 31h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 86¢ $4 31h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 87¢ $4 34h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 77¢ $4 36h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 83¢ $4 39h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 86¢ $4 39h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 83¢ $4 44h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 87¢ $4 44h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 84¢ $4 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 83¢ $4 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 82¢ $4 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 86¢ $4 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 65¢ $3 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 82¢ $3 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 82¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 83¢ $4 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 87¢ $4 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 83¢ $4 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 86¢ $1 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 86¢ $3 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 82¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.92 · official $3.00 (match) · 3500 history records