Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:24:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EF 0xefe3…6e6c crypto 539 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,387 (-3%) realized −$1,325 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate69%369W / 169L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day43.5pace
Fees−$240est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$54
14 days−$23
30 days−$535
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$1,698
sports 28% −$577
other 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +9.2% -1.2% 80% 60% -1.1%
≤30d 155 -4.3% -13.4% 81% 25% -12.1%
≤90d 538 -8.5% -17.2% 69% 31% -14.7%
all 538 -8.5% -17.2% 69% 31% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 31% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 13% -22.9%
15% -32.4% 7% -30.3%
20% -39.0% 4% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$30 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized−$1,325
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses369 / 169
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$240
Open positions1
Markets (closed)538 / 539
History coverage66d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day43.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 538 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India India 79¢ 62¢ $293 $231 −$62 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $100 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $181 +$19 +11%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $97 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $60 −$58 -96%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$33 +66%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$10 +19%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$15 +37%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$11 -74%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $46 +$60 +130%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$14 -69%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 15 $115 +$10 +9%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $311 +$80 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $100 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $102 +$44 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $151 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $102 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $151 +$18 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$5 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India SELL India 35¢ $42 0m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 65¢ $10 4m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 64¢ $10 4m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 64¢ $10 4m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 57¢ $10 6m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 55¢ $10 7m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 55¢ $10 7m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 77¢ $10 9m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 76¢ $10 9m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 78¢ $10 10m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 79¢ $10 12m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 77¢ $10 12m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 80¢ $10 14m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 80¢ $10 14m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 81¢ $10 15m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 81¢ $10 15m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 82¢ $10 15m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 82¢ $10 15m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 83¢ $10 16m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 83¢ $10 16m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 83¢ $10 17m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 83¢ $10 17m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 84¢ $10 18m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 84¢ $10 18m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 84¢ $10 18m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 86¢ $10 18m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 86¢ $10 18m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 85¢ $10 18m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 88¢ $10 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 88¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.39 · official $231.39 (match) · 2916 history records