Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xefdf…dd75 other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$88 (+8%) realized +$99 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%22W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days−$5
14 days+$82
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$147
sports 39% −$89
crypto 3% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -21.2% -28.7% 48% 48% -10.2%
≤30d 36 +3.1% -6.7% 61% 61% -1.1%
≤90d 36 +3.1% -6.7% 61% 61% -1.1%
all 36 +3.1% -6.7% 61% 61% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 61% -1.1%
10% -15.6% 58% -10.6%
15% -23.8% 47% -19.2%
20% -31.3% 42% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$19 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized+$99
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses22 / 14
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions12
Markets (closed)36 / 48
History coverage24d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-35%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 +$13 +66%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $82 +$42 +51%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$8 -81%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$13 +66%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 +$19 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 +$17 +56%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$21 +69%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 +$39 +63%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31 +$15 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$28 +91%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 +$20 +67%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 +$19 +60%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 +$16 +53%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 +$7 +22%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$6 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$22 +107%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $21 +$21 +103%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$8 +40%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $20 +$5 +23%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 31 $20 +$7 +32%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 29 $3 +$9 +303%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $31 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 25h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $20 25h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $31 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $31 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $31 3d
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $31 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $31 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $5 5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 5d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.13 · official $179.14 (match) · 86 history records