Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:09:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EF 0xefdf…7148 crypto 811 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,302 (-10%) realized −$1,295 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%216W / 594L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$81
14 days−$865
30 days−$1,363
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,886
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -11.9% -20.3% 24% 13% -20.9%
≤30d 188 -24.6% -31.8% 38% 28% -26.3%
≤90d 513 -39.5% -45.2% 36% 32% -24.5%
all 810 -26.8% -33.8% 27% 24% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.8% 24% -24.6%
10% ← realistic here -40.1% 18% -31.8%
15% -45.9% 12% -38.4%
20% -51.2% 9% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,295
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses216 / 594
Open positions1
Markets (closed)810 / 811
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 810 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$8 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$15 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 3500 history records