Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:50:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xefde…783d
world · 150 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$19,051 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7,123 · open −$417
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12,721
Realized+$7,123
Unrealized−$417
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses78 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions38
Markets (closed)113 / 150
History coverage31d
Avg bet$1,599
Trades / day108.4
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 38 History 113 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,141
7 days+$1,974
14 days+$3,380
30 days+$6,256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Yes 69¢ 57¢ $1,485 $1,224 −$261 (-18%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? No 55¢ 69¢ $825 $1,034 +$209 (+25%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $1,053 $1,024 −$29 (-3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? No 59¢ 71¢ $751 $894 +$143 (+19%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $800 $820 +$20 (+3%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? No 76¢ 100¢ $605 $797 +$192 (+32%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $1,094 $683 −$411 (-38%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $620 $590 −$30 (-5%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $523 $478 −$45 (-9%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $473 $443 −$30 (-6%)
Will Kai Havertz score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $374 $428 +$54 (+15%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 35¢ 81¢ $175 $407 +$232 (+133%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $407 $405 −$2 (-0%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $413 $386 −$27 (-6%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $370 $376 +$6 (+2%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 74¢ 38¢ $724 $370 −$353 (-49%)
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $240 $244 +$3 (+1%)
Will Lionel Messi score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 50¢ $207 $239 +$32 (+16%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 45¢ 48¢ $209 $226 +$17 (+8%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $182 $200 +$18 (+10%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $206 $197 −$10 (-5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 94¢ 97¢ $189 $193 +$5 (+3%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 69¢ 55¢ $243 $193 −$49 (-20%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $150 $170 +$20 (+14%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $215 $160 −$55 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $602 +$27 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $7,840 +$550 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $897 +$13 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $900 +$10 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $526 +$106 +20%
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Jun 14 $1 +$148 +16432%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $250 −$79 -32%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $0 +$1 +317%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $812 +$37 +4%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $101 +$213 +210%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $31 +$4 +11%
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $513 +$113 +22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1,342 −$213 -16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2,459 −$663 -27%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $793 +$64 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $350 +$50 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $1,074 +$56 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 12 $1,189 −$67 -6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $2,496 +$425 +17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,328 −$24 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $166 −$23 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $400 −$56 -14%
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? Jun 11 $115 −$4 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $3,328 +$131 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $1,917 +$232 +12%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $989 −$182 -18%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $375 +$1,490 +397%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $4,394 +$140 +3%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +64%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 10 $318 −$318 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 10 $680 +$10 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $240 +$2 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $74 −$7 -9%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $156 +$3 +2%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $93 +$13 +14%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $2,109 +$86 +4%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $253 −$220 -87%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $189 +$8 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 07 $1,025 +$25 +2%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? Jun 06 $36 +$375 +1044%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 04 $425 −$241 -57%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $790 +$120 +15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 02 $658 +$38 +6%
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Jun 02 $366 +$239 +65%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $25,495 +$254 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $320 −$72 -22%
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $199 +$1 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $3,963 +$1,402 +35%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 73% +$4,793
crypto 14% +$1,881
other 8% +$1,309
tech 2% −$969
sports 1% −$1,016
politics 1% +$815
finance 1% −$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $10 0m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 15¢ $2 0m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 15¢ $14 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $144 1m
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 3m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $820 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $800 14m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 64¢ $9 31m
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 32m
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $446 34m
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $74 34m
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $72 34m
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 34m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $820 35m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 60¢ $60 36m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 60¢ $300 36m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 60¢ $15 36m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 55¢ $159 36m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 60¢ $300 36m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 60¢ $75 36m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 55¢ $24 36m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 55¢ $106 36m
Will Cody Gakpo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $4 36m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 55¢ $12 37m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 55¢ $13 37m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 55¢ $509 37m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 55¢ $2 38m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $780 40m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 59¢ $1,485 40m
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +69.8% +53.6% 67% 31% -5.3%
≤30d 107 +53.7% +39.1% 68% 30% -5.9%
≤90d 113 +53.6% +39.0% 69% 31% -5.5%
all 113 +53.6% +39.0% 69% 31% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover108.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +39.0% 31% -5.5%
10% +25.7% 20% -14.5%
15% ← realistic here +13.6% 19% -22.8%
20% +2.4% 14% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,720.89 · official $12,711.47 (match) · 3500 history records