Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:51:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EF 0xefdd…8370 world 289 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14,079 (+24%) realized +$13,538 · open +$541
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +92% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip
Net edge+47%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate52%95W / 89L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day49.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$10,579now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$746
other 28% +$1,299
politics 11% +$3,360
tech 6% −$556
finance 4% −$269
economics 1% +$677
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+73.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +295.0% +257.4% 64% 48% -2.3%
≤30d 91 +135.2% +112.8% 58% 43% -3.6%
≤90d 184 +91.5% +73.3% 52% 39% +2.7%
all 184 +91.5% +73.3% 52% 39% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +73.3% 39% +2.7%
10% ← realistic here +56.7% 29% -7.1%
15% +41.5% 23% -16.1%
20% +27.7% 20% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +91% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late +155% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$91 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$10,579
Realized+$13,538
Unrealized+$541
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses95 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions69
Markets (closed)184 / 289
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$206
Trades / day49.7
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 69 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 96¢ $560 $740 +$180 (+32%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 71¢ 92¢ $569 $735 +$166 (+29%)
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? No 33¢ 27¢ $847 $693 −$154 (-18%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by July 31? No 75¢ 79¢ $475 $501 +$25 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 61¢ 69¢ $437 $497 +$60 (+14%)
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026? No 45¢ 48¢ $427 $452 +$24 (+6%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30? No 90¢ 90¢ $447 $448 +$1 (+0%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $387 $405 +$18 (+5%)
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31? No 61¢ 81¢ $291 $387 +$96 (+33%)
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? No 90¢ 95¢ $358 $379 +$21 (+6%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI 24¢ 23¢ $386 $377 −$9 (-2%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $403 $369 −$34 (-8%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $302 $317 +$15 (+5%)
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? No 72¢ 90¢ $244 $302 +$58 (+24%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $293 $294 +$1 (+0%)
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? No 45¢ 74¢ $167 $273 +$106 (+64%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? No 98¢ 99¢ $234 $238 +$4 (+2%)
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? No 87¢ 94¢ $199 $216 +$17 (+9%)
Trump declares election interference national emergency? No 66¢ 81¢ $160 $198 +$38 (+24%)
Will FISA Section 702 be reauthorized by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $182 $197 +$15 (+9%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $170 $191 +$21 (+13%)
Will Trump issue a veto in 2026? No 44¢ 57¢ $140 $182 +$41 (+29%)
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $150 $177 +$26 (+18%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 73¢ $141 $175 +$34 (+24%)
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? No 58¢ 39¢ $251 $169 −$82 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 27 $1 +$23 +3168%
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? Jun 27 $0 −$149 -64951%
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20? Jun 27 $0 +$3 +3952%
Will Iran close its airspace by February 28, 2026? Jun 27 $0 +$51 +11765%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Jun 27 $0 −$198 -77155%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? Jun 27 $0 +$35 +71004%
Will Trump drink water during the State of the Union? Jun 27 $0 −$55 -34271%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Jun 27 $0 +$55 +132283%
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? Jun 26 $1,122 +$438 +39%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $495 −$70 -14%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Jun 26 $111 −$111 -100%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $49 −$49 -100%
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? Jun 26 $80 +$16 +21%
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? Jun 26 $71 +$15 +21%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? Jun 26 $97 $0 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? Jun 25 $38 +$3 +8%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $82 +$11 +14%
Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fradulent? Jun 25 $2 +$116 +5442%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Jun 25 $486 −$12 -2%
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Jun 25 $112 +$13 +11%
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? Jun 25 $213 +$3 +2%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Jun 25 $273 −$161 -59%
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? Jun 25 $129 +$39 +31%
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Jun 25 $37 −$1 -3%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 25 $510 +$248 +49%
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Jun 24 $735 −$35 -5%
Will Russia enter Stavky by June 30? Jun 24 $40 +$12 +29%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 24 $789 −$386 -49%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 24 $244 +$1 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $258 +$83 +32%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $512 +$206 +40%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $128 +$220 +172%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $178 +$5 +3%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $233 −$38 -16%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 18 $201 $0 +0%
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? Jun 17 $65 +$87 +135%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 17 $397 −$1 -0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $399 +$6 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 17 $235 +$35 +15%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 17 $837 +$19 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 17 $97 +$11 +12%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $493 −$148 -30%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $642 +$113 +18%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 14 $155 −$69 -44%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $350 −$4 -1%
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting Jun 13 $61 +$8 +12%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $116 −$2 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $104 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $40 4m
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $107 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $29 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $293 1h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 3, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $14 1h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $46 1h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $19 1h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 2, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $26 1h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $9 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $95 1h
Will Trump issue a veto in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $24 1h
Will Trump issue a veto in 2026? BUY No 47¢ $10 1h
Will Trump issue a veto in 2026? BUY No 43¢ $110 1h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $33 1h
Will CopperTech Metals' market cap be between $3B and $3.6B at market SELL Yes 29¢ $6 1h
Will CopperTech Metals' market cap be between $3B and $3.6B at market SELL Yes 33¢ $6 1h
Will CopperTech Metals' market cap be between $3B and $3.6B at market BUY Yes 29¢ $6 2h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $71 2h
Will CopperTech Metals' market cap be between $3B and $3.6B at market BUY Yes 25¢ $45 2h
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15? BUY No 92¢ $18 2h
Iran full airspace closure by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $74 2h
Iran full airspace closure by July 15? BUY No 85¢ $85 2h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $72 3h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $2 3h
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3h
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $21 3h
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 4h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,578.59 · official $10,570.47 (match) · 3500 history records