Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:39:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xefdd…1e8a sports 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,268 (-8%) realized −$933 · open −$335
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%33W / 48L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$359
7 days+$359
14 days+$359
30 days+$1,135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$4,058
other 31% +$1,555
world 0% −$21
crypto 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +68.4% +52.4% 50% 50% +124.9%
≤30d 7 +76.6% +59.8% 71% 71% +87.2%
≤90d 52 -5.9% -14.9% 38% 38% +4.4%
all 81 +0.4% -9.2% 41% 36% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 36% -22.6%
10% -17.9% 33% -30.0%
15% -25.8% 33% -36.8%
20% -33.1% 30% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$163 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$933
Unrealized−$335
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses33 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions2
Markets (closed)81 / 83
History coverage137d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ 0¢ $261 $0 −$261 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 15¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $240 +$360 +150%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $2 $0 -13%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $6 $0 -4%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $138 +$62 +45%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $271 +$329 +121%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5 May 25 $114 +$196 +172%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 May 25 $291 +$189 +65%
Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $145 +$55 +38%
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $261 +$335 +129%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $145 −$144 -99%
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $259 −$255 -98%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $267 +$158 +60%
Will Red Star FC win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $137 −$134 -98%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $139 −$136 -98%
Will Rodez Aveyron Football win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $266 −$264 -99%
Spread: CD Tondela (-1.5) May 12 $102 +$311 +304%
Will CD Tondela win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $398 +$300 +75%
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5 May 10 $207 −$10 -5%
Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5 May 10 $264 −$18 -7%
Falkirk FC vs. Hibernian FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $406 −$400 -98%
RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5 May 09 $143 −$140 -98%
RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5 May 09 $264 −$260 -99%
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5) May 08 $131 −$3 -2%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $211 +$189 +90%
Will CD Tondela win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $427 +$419 +98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 02 $163 −$160 -98%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-30? May 02 $211 +$189 +90%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 15 $616 −$52 -8%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $306 −$306 -100%
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. AZ: O/U 2.5 Apr 09 $158 −$155 -99%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-09? Apr 09 $78 −$78 -100%
Preston North End FC vs. Queens Park Rangers FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $156 +$144 +92%
Millwall FC vs. Norwich City FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $156 −$156 -100%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $306 +$294 +96%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $153 +$143 +93%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $294 +$297 +101%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $300 +$300 +100%
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5) Apr 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $71 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Russia (-1.5) Mar 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Colombia vs. France: O/U 2.5 Mar 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $6 +$14 +212%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $27 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $27 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $102 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $2,228 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ $107 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 83¢ $10 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 83¢ $10 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 83¢ $19 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 78¢ $290 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 83¢ $36 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 83¢ $31 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 15¢ $77 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $599 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $12 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 55¢ $1 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 55¢ $76 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 55¢ $11 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 55¢ $16 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 55¢ $6 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 36¢ $183 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $158 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 39¢ $198 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 81¢ $81 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $158 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 20¢ $2 25h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 22¢ $2 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 16d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 16d
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-29? BUY No 69¢ $114 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.59 · official $0.59 (match) · 226 history records