Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:26:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EF 0xefd9…14d6 crypto 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$1,623 (-21%) realized −$884 · open −$473
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate24%55W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$482now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$538
7 days−$209
14 days−$567
30 days−$884
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$968
world 22% −$536
sports 14% +$509
other 4% −$11
economics 4% −$146
tech 3% −$200
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -59.7% -63.6% 16% 16% -22.4%
≤30d 230 +6.4% -3.8% 24% 23% -24.8%
≤90d 230 +6.4% -3.8% 24% 23% -24.8%
all 230 +6.4% -3.8% 24% 23% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 23% -24.8%
10% -13.0% 23% -32.0%
15% -21.4% 23% -38.6%
20% -29.1% 22% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$21 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$482
Realized−$884
Unrealized−$473
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses55 / 175
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions8
Markets (closed)230 / 238
History coverage22d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 8¢ $290 $77 −$213 (-73%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $100 $64 −$36 (-36%)
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $60 $51 −$9 (-16%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $150 $49 −$101 (-67%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $60 $24 −$36 (-60%)
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $65 $17 −$48 (-74%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 32¢ 1¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-97%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -94%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $508 +$563 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $42 +$83 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $27 +$19 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $69 −$65 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -94%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 08 $207 −$200 -97%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $63 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $107 −$100 -94%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $222 −$210 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 06 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$13 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 02 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$45 +841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$28 +532%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$12 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$36 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 01 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 2¢ $21 1h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $21 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 4d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 3¢ $31 4d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $21 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $200 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $48 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $45 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $481.70 · official $481.70 (match) · 442 history records