Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EF 0xefd9…e41e politics 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$116 (-0%) realized −$116 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$12
politics 35% −$11
sports 7% −$92
world 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 109 -3.4% -12.6% 4% 4% -9.9%
all 122 -3.8% -12.9% 7% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 6% -9.9%
10% -21.3% 6% -18.6%
15% -28.9% 3% -26.4%
20% -35.8% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$2 · ×6.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage115d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $205 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $234 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 30 $35 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $191 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $223 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $217 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $371 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 16 $213 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $180 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $174 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 12 $229 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $172 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $174 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $179 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $428 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $229 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $411 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $225 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 04 $196 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $236 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $165 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $201 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $401 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $220 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $231 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $304 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $209 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $219 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $179 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $216 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $399 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $181 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $168 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $208 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 20 $314 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $185 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $373 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 11h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 17h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $39 29h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 2d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 6d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 11d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 14d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $35 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $35 21d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 21d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 21d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $164 26d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $164 26d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $191 27d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $191 28d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $172 29d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $172 29d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $223 30d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $223 32d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $217 32d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $217 32d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $199 33d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $199 33d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $204 34d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $204 34d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $213 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.99 · official $30.99 (match) · 356 history records