Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xefd8…c525 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,342 (+12%) realized +$1,342 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate81%13W / 3L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$681per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$185
7 days−$8
14 days−$147
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% +$874
other 41% +$434
sports 1% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.4% -7.4% 80% 60% -10.1%
≤30d 9 +2.2% -7.6% 78% 67% -17.1%
≤90d 9 +2.2% -7.6% 78% 67% -17.1%
all 16 +2.4% -7.4% 81% 69% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 69% +1.5%
10% -16.2% 44% -8.2%
15% -24.3% 19% -17.0%
20% -31.8% 12% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$201 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,342
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses13 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage250d
Avg bet$681
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 25 $310 +$185 +60%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $269 −$268 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $240 +$29 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $194 +$12 +6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $148 +$45 +31%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $124 +$25 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $269 −$267 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$58 +57%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 22 $3,959 +$4 +0%
Will Chile Grande y Unido hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputi Nov 17 $79 +$21 +27%
Will Unidad por Chile hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies? Nov 17 $3,073 +$770 +25%
Will Jeannette Jara come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilea Nov 17 $17 +$3 +16%
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential Nov 09 $1,896 +$745 +39%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 20 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 19 $69 −$69 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $495 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $269 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $240 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $194 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $148 7d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $124 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $169 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 61¢ $310 17d
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? SELL Yes 95¢ $3,963 215d
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? BUY Yes 95¢ $3,486 218d
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 218d
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? BUY Yes 95¢ $4 218d
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? BUY Yes 95¢ $135 218d
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? BUY Yes 95¢ $133 218d
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 218d
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? BUY Yes 95¢ $69 218d
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? BUY Yes 95¢ $4 218d
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? BUY Yes 95¢ $31 218d
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 218d
Will Unidad por Chile hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies? SELL Yes 83¢ $830 220d
Will Unidad por Chile hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 221d
Will Unidad por Chile hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies? BUY Yes 78¢ $168 221d
Will Unidad por Chile hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies? BUY Yes 78¢ $156 221d
Will Unidad por Chile hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 221d
Will Unidad por Chile hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies? BUY Yes 78¢ $62 221d
Will Unidad por Chile hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies? BUY Yes 78¢ $37 221d
Will Unidad por Chile hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies? BUY Yes 78¢ $39 221d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records