Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

EF 0xefd6…ca34 sports 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (374 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate35%7W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$135per market

Trades / day374.0pace

Fees−$34est.

Kalshi-fit70%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (374 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-25.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-17.6%	-25.4%	35%	25%	-11.1%
≤30d	20	-17.6%	-25.4%	35%	25%	-11.1%
≤90d	20	-17.6%	-25.4%	35%	25%	-11.1%
all	20	-17.6%	-25.4%	35%	25%	-11.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover374.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-25.4%	25%	-11.1%
10% ← realistic here	-32.6%	25%	-19.6%
15%	-39.1%	20%	-27.4%
20%	-45.1%	20%	-34.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

29% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -6% → late -29% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

13.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.59 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$16

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)35%

Wins / losses7 / 13

Est. fees paid−$34

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 20

History coverage1d

Avg bet$135

Trades / day374.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$103	−$1	-0%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$177	−$13	-7%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5	Jun 25	$10	$0	+4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$405	+$26	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Jun 25	$7	−$4	-64%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$221	−$16	-7%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$129	−$6	-5%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$29	+$24	+84%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$51	+$12	+25%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$26	−$8	-30%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$334	−$11	-3%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 25	$1	$0	-50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Jun 25	$18	−$10	-56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Jun 25	$5	+$2	+39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Jun 25	$15	+$2	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Jun 25	$7	−$7	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Jun 25	$8	+$6	+74%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5	Jun 25	$711	−$6	-1%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5	Jun 24	$34	−$11	-32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$404	−$31	-8%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	1¢	$0	28m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	6¢	$2	28m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	7¢	$2	28m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	15¢	$4	30m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	15¢	$5	30m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	SELL No	10¢	$3	31m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	15¢	$2	31m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	15¢	$3	31m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	17¢	$5	31m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	11¢	$3	32m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	81¢	$16	32m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	81¢	$11	32m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	75¢	$25	33m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	28¢	$10	35m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	32¢	$0	35m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	30¢	$9	35m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	32¢	$2	35m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	28¢	$10	36m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	34¢	$0	37m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	34¢	$7	37m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	34¢	$6	37m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	34¢	$13	37m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	36¢	$15	38m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	61¢	$10	39m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	58¢	$5	41m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	58¢	$5	41m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	80¢	$25	41m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	77¢	$25	43m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	76¢	$73	44m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	76¢	$24	44m

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 375 history records