Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:43:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

EF 0xefd1…1475 world 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR21%break-even

Win rate79%11W / 3L

Drawdown60%max

Avg bet$13per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit93%portable

Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$0

7 days+$0

14 days+$0

30 days+$1

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +21%

net ROI/market (all)-4.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+2.5%	-7.3%	100%	0%	-7.3%
≤30d	2	+1.9%	-7.8%	100%	0%	-7.8%
≤90d	14	+5.3%	-4.8%	79%	21%	-8.3%
all	14	+5.3%	-4.8%	79%	21%	-8.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.8%	21%	-8.3%
10%	-13.9%	7%	-17.1%
15%	-22.2%	0%	-25.1%
20%	-29.8%	0%	-32.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 43% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

73% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +10% → late +0% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage

Net worth$50

Realized+$2

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)79%

Wins / losses11 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)14 / 15

History coverage142d

Avg bet$13

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown60%

Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	96¢	96¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	Jun 21	$18	$0	+2%
Will "Solo Leveling Season 2 -Arise from the Shadow-" win Best Continu	Jun 05	$18	$0	+1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	May 21	$18	$0	-2%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	May 20	$18	$0	-0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	May 17	$20	−$2	-8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	May 15	$20	$0	+0%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr	May 13	$4	$0	+2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April	May 13	$4	$0	+6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	May 13	$9	+$1	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Apr 29	$4	+$1	+24%
Will the US next strike Iran in January 2026 (ET)?	Mar 30	$2	$0	+5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 30?	Mar 30	$2	$0	+12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 8	Mar 30	$3	+$1	+20%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?	Mar 30	$5	$0	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	96¢	$50	1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	SELL Yes	99¢	$18	1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	BUY Yes	96¢	$18	16d
Will "Solo Leveling Season 2 -Arise from the Shadow-" win Best Continu	BUY No	99¢	$18	31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL No	95¢	$18	31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY No	96¢	$18	31d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	SELL No	93¢	$18	31d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	BUY No	93¢	$18	34d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	SELL Yes	84¢	$19	34d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	90¢	$20	36d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	SELL No	98¢	$20	36d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	BUY No	97¢	$20	38d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	BUY No	93¢	$9	52d
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr	BUY No	98¢	$4	82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$4	82d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April	BUY Yes	94¢	$4	82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 8	BUY Yes	83¢	$3	132d
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?	BUY No	99¢	$5	132d
Will the US next strike Iran in January 2026 (ET)?	BUY No	95¢	$2	141d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 30?	BUY Down	89¢	$2	141d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.97 · official $49.97 (match) · 29 history records